Last week, trusted analyst Ming Chi-Kuo tweeted that Demand for the iPhone 14 is expected to increase in China. Kuo based this forecast on his survey, which showed that Chinese distributors/retailers/scalpers are paying the highest upfront payments ever to ensure a sufficient supply of iPhone 14 units. Not only is this deposit “significantly higher” than the amount paid for the iPhone 13, it’s even double that in some areas.
But just two days after Kuo’s tweet, Digitimes wrote, “Apple’s iPhone 14 series is believed to have started mass production, but target shipments of the first wave of 90 million units have been reduced by 10%.” In other words, Digitimes’ report states that Apple has slashed initial orders for the iPhone 14 series by 10%. Not exactly what one would expect given Kuo’s tweet calling for higher upfront payments for the iPhone 14 in China.
The 10% cut in iPhone 14 orders follows a rumor that leading chipmaker TSMC recently received order cuts from Apple (its top customer), AMD and NVIDIA. Kuo responded with a tweet Saturday morning, explaining that Apple’s alleged cut in orders placed with TSMC “didn’t match” his survey. According to the TF International analyst, he still sees the supply chain delivering enough components for Apple to ship 100 million iPhone 14 units.
Kuo disagrees with Digitimes, stating that its supply chain survey doesn’t show a 10% cut in iPhone 14 orders
Kuo also notes that when a supply chain issue causes a change in shipping schedules of new iPhone units ahead of mass production, Apple typically postpones orders rather than cutting them.
So this is the state of affairs. If you had to bet on who’s right here, you’d probably bet on Kuo’s track record and reputation.
We expect that in a little over two months Apple is introducing four new iPhone models: the 6.1-inch iPhone 14, 6.7-inch iPhone 14 Max, 6.1-inch iPhone 14 Pro, and 6.7-inch iPhone 14 per max